Today / Brazil - Serie B / Cuiaba vs Goias
Cuiaba vs Goias Prediction— Brazil - Serie B
Cuiaba
PPG 1.50 · HOME
Goias
PPG 1.08 · AWAY
Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →
0 1 2 3 4+ 0 0-017.8% 0-111.0% 0-23.4% 0-30.7% 0-4+0.1% 1 1-019.8% 1-112.2% 1-23.7% 1-30.8% 1-4+0.1% 2 2-010.9% 2-16.7% 2-22.1% 2-30.4% 2-4+0.1% 3 3-04.0% 3-12.5% 3-20.8% 3-30.2% 3-4+0.0% 4+ 4+-01.4% 4+-10.9% 4+-20.3% 4+-30.1% 4+-4+0.0%
Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW ▣ FT RESULT
Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV
Market Model Implied Odds EV
Home win 45.6% 42.7% 2.34 +6.7%
Draw 32.0% 34.5% 2.90 -7.2%
Away win 22.4% 29.4% 3.40 -14.3%
Over 2.5 34.5% 38.5% 2.60 -10.3%
Over 3.5 18.2% 19.0% 5.25 -2.7%
BTTS 43.6% 48.8% 2.05 -10.6%
Home O1.5 30.6% 36.4% 2.75 -15.8%
Away O1.5 16.6% 27.4% 3.65 -23.6%
League track record ↗
Based on 171 resolved predictions
1X2 Acc 45%
O2.5 55%
BTTS 53%
Score Hit 58%
ROI 18.7%
Bet Hit 58%
Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL
2 – 0 42% CONFIDENCE
✘ MISS — FT 1-1 xG (home) 1.1 xG (away) 0.6 BTTS prob 43.6%
H 46% / xG 1.1-0.6 / U2.5 34% / NoBTTS 44%
Top 5 Poisson scorelines
#1 1–0 19.8%
#2 0–0 17.8%
#3 1–1✓ 12.2%
#4 0–1 11.0%
#5 2–0 10.9%
Form & verdict PPG
⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected HIGH_DRAW_RISK xG gap +0.49, combined xG 1.72 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk
Season statistics shots · possession · passes · corners · cards · xG + Season Statistics average per match · 25 matches · 2026 Cuiaba ▾ lower is better Goias
Attack
5.4 Shots outside box
4.8 32.5% Shooting accuracy
31.9% 21.5% Goals per shot on target
28.4% 1.10 xG for 25·24 of 25
1.10 Defence
2.6 Shots on target faced▾
4.0 0.76 Goals conceded▾
1.20 0.76 xG against▾ 25·24 of 25
1.17 Control
81.3% Pass accuracy
85.2% Discipline
Match Preview & Prediction Cuiaba face Goias in Brazil - Serie B on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cuiaba a 46% chance, the draw 32% and Goias 22%, so Cuiaba are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Cuiaba and 0.6 for Goias (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cuiaba are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.08 for Goias. This match finished 1-1.
Matchday 24 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 21:30
