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Deportes Tolima vs Bucaramanga Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Clausura · Matchday 6 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 21:05

Deportes Tolima

PPG 2.13 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWDW

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Bucaramanga

PPG 1.08 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDWDD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.0% vs bookmaker-implied 50.0% — a real, if thin, edge.

+6.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.5%0-16.7%0-22.6%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-014.3%1-111.2%1-24.4%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-012.0%2-19.4%2-23.7%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-06.7%3-15.3%3-22.1%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-04.1%4+-13.2%4+-21.3%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.4% 44.2% 2.26 +18.4%

Draw 24.3% 34.2% 2.92 -17.4%

Away win 23.3% 28.6% 3.50 -11.1%

Over 2.5 52.8% 40.8% 2.45 +29.4%

Over 3.5 30.9% 21.1% 4.75 +46.8%

BTTS 53.0% 50.0% 2.00 +6.0%

Home O1.5 48.8% 39.2% 2.55 +24.4%

Away O1.5 20.7% 28.2% 3.55 -15.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 75 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 48%

ROI 0.6%

Bet Hit 53%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob53.0%

H 52% / xG 1.7-0.8 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 14.3%

#2 1–1 11.2%

#3 2–0 12.0%

#4 0–0✓ 8.5%

#5 2–1 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Deportes Tolima1.7

Bucaramanga0.8

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.8% · O3.5 PROB 30.9%

Form & verdict PPG

DEPORTES TOLIMA · PPG 2.13

BUCARAMANGA · PPG 1.08

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.90 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Deportes Tolima (H) 52.4%

ODDS 2.26 · IMPLIED 44.2% EV +18.4%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 2.92 · IMPLIED 34.2% EV -17.4%

Bucaramanga (A) 23.3%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -11.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Deportes Tolima face Bucaramanga in Colombia - Primera A on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Deportes Tolima a 52% chance, the draw 24% and Bucaramanga 23%, so Deportes Tolima are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Deportes Tolima and 0.8 for Bucaramanga (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Deportes Tolima are averaging 2.13 points per game versus 1.08 for Bucaramanga. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +46.8%. This match finished 0-0.

Deportes Tolima vs Bucaramanga Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Match Preview & Prediction

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