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Nomme Kalju vs Nomme Utd Prediction— Estonia - Meistriliiga

Estonia - Meistriliiga logo Estonia flag Estonia - Meistriliiga Regular Season - 8 Hiiu Stadium· Tallinn Wednesday, April 22, 2026 15:45
Nomme Kalju logo Nomme Kalju PPG 2.33
7-1 MISS
Nomme Utd logo Nomme Utd PPG 0.33
Home· +18.3% 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned
98% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Nomme Kalju face Nomme Utd in Estonia - Meistriliiga on Wednesday, April 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nomme Kalju a 87% chance, the draw 9% and Nomme Utd 4%, so Nomme Kalju are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.3 for Nomme Kalju and 0.7 for Nomme Utd (4.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 76% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nomme Kalju are averaging 2.33 points per game versus 0.33 for Nomme Utd. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +18.3%. This match finished 7-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 87.0%
Odds: 1.36 EV: +18.3%
Draw 8.8%
Odds: 4.40 EV: -61.3%
Away 4.2%
Odds: 6.50 EV: -72.7%
Model lean: Home
Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 76.3% Odds: —
Over 3.5 56.8% Odds: —
BTTS 47.2% Odds: 1.62 -23.5%
O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS NO → YES ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 3-0
2nd 2-0
3rd 4-0
4th 3-1
5th 2-1

Expected Goals (xG)

Nomme Kalju
3.34
Nomme Utd
0.67

Model Suggestion

Home +18.3% ROI TRACKS: Home
Tracked ROI market: Home.

Verdict & Form

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned
98%
STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.33), Away POOR (0.33) - Strong consensus

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