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Nomme Kalju vs Nomme Utd Prediction— Estonia - Meistriliiga

Regular Season - 8 ·Wednesday, April 22, 2026, 15:45

Nomme Kalju

PPG 2.33 · HOME

7 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Nomme Utd

PPG 0.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 87.0% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5% — a clear edge.

+18.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.8%0-11.2%0-20.4%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-06.1%1-14.1%1-21.4%1-30.3%1-4+0.1%2 2-010.1%2-16.8%2-22.3%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-011.2%3-17.6%3-22.5%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-021.9%4+-114.7%4+-24.9%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 87.0% 73.5% 1.36 +18.3%

Draw 8.8% 22.7% 4.40 -61.3%

Away win 4.2% 15.4% 6.50 -72.7%

Over 2.5 76.3% — — —

Over 3.5 56.8% — — —

BTTS 47.2% 61.7% 1.62 -23.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 36%

ROI -14.4%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 0 78%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 7-1

xG (home)3.3 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob47.2%

H 87% / xG 3.3-0.7 / O2.5 76% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 11.2%

#2 2–0 10.1%

#3 4–0 9.4%

#4 3–1 7.6%

#5 2–1 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Nomme Kalju3.3

Nomme Utd0.7

COMBINED 4.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 76.3% · O3.5 PROB 56.8%

Form & verdict PPG

NOMME KALJU · PPG 2.33

NOMME UTD · PPG 0.33

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

98%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.33), Away POOR (0.33) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Nomme Kalju (H) 87.0%

ODDS 1.36 · IMPLIED 73.5% EV +18.3%

Draw 8.8%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV -61.3%

Nomme Utd (A) 4.2%

ODDS 6.50 · IMPLIED 15.4% EV -72.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Nomme Kalju face Nomme Utd in Estonia - Meistriliiga on Wednesday, April 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nomme Kalju a 87% chance, the draw 9% and Nomme Utd 4%, so Nomme Kalju are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.3 for Nomme Kalju and 0.7 for Nomme Utd (4.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 76% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nomme Kalju are averaging 2.33 points per game versus 0.33 for Nomme Utd. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +18.3%. This match finished 7-1.

Nomme Kalju vs Nomme Utd Prediction— Estonia - Meistriliiga

Match Preview & Prediction

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