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Ceara vs Londrina Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Matchday 24 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 21:00

Ceara

PPG 1.25 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLWL

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Londrina

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLDLD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.0% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.4%0-18.0%0-24.3%0-31.6%0-4+0.5%1 1-011.2%1-112.2%1-26.6%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.6%2-19.3%2-25.0%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-04.3%3-14.7%3-22.5%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-12.5%4+-21.4%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.3% 56.8% 1.76 -18.5%

Draw 26.2% 28.6% 3.50 -5.0%

Away win 27.5% 21.5% 4.65 +16.7%

Over 2.5 50.2% 50.0% 2.00 +0.4%

Over 3.5 29.0% 27.4% 3.65 +3.5%

BTTS 53.0% 54.1% 1.85 -1.9%

Home O1.5 40.0% 52.4% 1.91 -23.6%

Away O1.5 35.1% 26.3% 3.80 +33.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 171 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 58%

ROI 18.7%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 26%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob53.0%

H 46% / xG 1.5-1.1 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 1–0 11.2%

#3 2–1✓ 9.3%

#4 2–0 8.6%

#5 0–0 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ceara1.5

Londrina1.1

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.2% · O3.5 PROB 29.0%

Form & verdict PPG

CEARA · PPG 1.25

LONDRINA · PPG 0.67

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.44 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Ceara (H) 46.3%

ODDS 1.76 · IMPLIED 56.8% EV -18.5%

Draw 26.2%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -5.0%

Londrina (A) 27.5%

ODDS 4.65 · IMPLIED 21.5% EV +16.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ceara face Londrina in Brazil - Serie B on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ceara a 46% chance, the draw 26% and Londrina 28%, so Ceara are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Ceara and 1.1 for Londrina (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ceara are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 0.67 for Londrina. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +33.4%. This match finished 2-1.

Ceara vs Londrina Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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