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Águilas Doradas vs Millonarios Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Clausura · Matchday 6 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 20:30

Águilas Doradas

PPG 1.50 · HOME

LAST 5

WWDDD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Millonarios

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDWD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.0% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.5%0-18.4%0-24.7%0-31.7%0-4+0.6%1 1-011.1%1-112.4%1-26.9%1-32.6%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.1%2-19.1%2-25.1%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-04.0%3-14.4%3-22.5%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-12.3%4+-21.3%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.9% 29.4% 3.40 +52.7%

Draw 26.3% 31.3% 3.20 -9.5%

Away win 28.7% 46.3% 2.16 -22.8%

Over 2.5 50.2% 47.6% 2.10 +5.4%

Over 3.5 29.2% 26.3% 3.80 +6.6%

BTTS 53.0% 54.6% 1.83 -3.0%

Home O1.5 40.0% 32.3% 3.10 +24.0%

Away O1.5 35.6% 44.4% 2.25 -19.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 75 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 48%

ROI 0.6%

Bet Hit 53%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 24%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob53.0%

H 45% / xG 1.5-1.1 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 12.4%

#2 1–0 11.1%

#3 2–1 9.1%

#4 2–0 8.1%

#5 0–0 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Águilas Doradas1.5

Millonarios1.1

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.2% · O3.5 PROB 29.2%

Form & verdict PPG

ÁGUILAS DORADAS · PPG 1.50

MILLONARIOS · PPG 0.80

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.35 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Águilas Doradas (H) 44.9%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV +52.7%

Draw 26.3%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -9.5%

Millonarios (A) 28.7%

ODDS 2.16 · IMPLIED 46.3% EV -22.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Águilas Doradas face Millonarios in Colombia - Primera A on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Águilas Doradas a 45% chance, the draw 26% and Millonarios 29%, so Águilas Doradas are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Águilas Doradas and 1.1 for Millonarios (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Águilas Doradas are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 0.80 for Millonarios. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +26.1%. This match finished 1-1.

Águilas Doradas vs Millonarios Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Match Preview & Prediction

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