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Espanyol vs Real Madrid Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Matchday 2 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 19:30

Espanyol

PPG 1.68 · HOME

LAST 5

WLL ··

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Real Madrid

PPG 1.79 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWW ··

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.1% vs bookmaker-implied 52.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.2%0-18.3%0-24.8%0-31.8%0-4+0.7%1 1-010.7%1-112.3%1-27.0%1-32.7%1-4+1.0%2 2-07.9%2-19.1%2-25.2%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-03.9%3-14.5%3-22.6%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-12.3%4+-21.3%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.8% 13.2% 7.60 +255.7%

Draw 26.5% 23.3% 4.30 +8.4%

Away win 26.7% 70.4% 1.42 -37.3%

Over 2.5 50.1% 57.8% 1.73 -13.3%

Over 3.5 28.4% 35.7% 2.80 -12.3%

BTTS 52.1% 52.6% 1.90 -1.0%

Home O1.5 40.0% 22.2% 4.50 +80.0%

Away O1.5 35.6% 66.7% 1.50 -46.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 92 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -2.3%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.1%

H 47% / xG 1.5-1.1 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.3%

#2 2–1 9.1%

#3 1–0 10.7%

#4 2–0 7.9%

#5 0–0 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Espanyol1.5

Real Madrid1.1

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.1% · O3.5 PROB 28.4%

Form & verdict PPG

ESPANYOL · PPG 1.68

REAL MADRID · PPG 1.79

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.33 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Espanyol (H) 46.8%

ODDS 7.60 · IMPLIED 13.2% EV +255.7%

Draw 26.5%

ODDS 4.30 · IMPLIED 23.3% EV +8.4%

Real Madrid (A) 26.7%

ODDS 1.42 · IMPLIED 70.4% EV -37.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Espanyol face Real Madrid in Spain - La Liga on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Espanyol a 47% chance, the draw 27% and Real Madrid 27%, so Espanyol are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Espanyol and 1.1 for Real Madrid (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Espanyol are averaging 1.68 points per game versus 1.79 for Real Madrid. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +112.3%. This match finished 1-2.

Espanyol vs Real Madrid Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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