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Sportivo Ameliano vs Deportivo Recoleta Prediction— Paraguay - Division Profesional - Clausura

Clausura · Matchday 6 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 19:00

Sportivo Ameliano

PPG 1.29 · HOME

LAST 5

DWLWD

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Deportivo Recoleta

PPG 1.52 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLLL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 60.9% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.5%0-17.9%0-25.7%0-32.8%0-4+1.4%1 1-08.0%1-111.5%1-28.4%1-34.0%1-4+2.0%2 2-05.8%2-18.4%2-26.1%2-32.9%2-4+1.5%3 3-02.8%3-14.1%3-23.0%3-31.4%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-12.1%4+-21.5%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.1% 49.5% 2.02 -21.0%

Draw 24.6% 29.9% 3.35 -10.5%

Away win 36.3% 29.9% 3.35 +21.6%

Over 2.5 59.7% 52.4% 1.91 +14.0%

Over 3.5 36.6% 30.3% 3.30 +20.8%

BTTS 60.9% 58.8% 1.70 +3.5%

Home O1.5 40.0% 48.8% 2.05 -18.0%

Away O1.5 41.2% 33.9% 2.95 +21.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 21 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 71%

ROI 20.3%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 44%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob60.9%

H 39% / xG 1.5-1.5 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.5%

#2 2–1 8.4%

#3 1–2 8.4%

#4 1–0 8.0%

#5 2–0 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sportivo Ameliano1.5

Deportivo Recoleta1.5

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.6%

Form & verdict PPG

SPORTIVO AMELIANO · PPG 1.29

DEPORTIVO RECOLETA · PPG 1.52

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.01 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Sportivo Ameliano (H) 39.1%

ODDS 2.02 · IMPLIED 49.5% EV -21.0%

Draw 24.6%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -10.5%

Deportivo Recoleta (A) 36.3%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV +21.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sportivo Ameliano face Deportivo Recoleta in Paraguay - Division Profesional - Clausura on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sportivo Ameliano a 39% chance, the draw 25% and Deportivo Recoleta 36%, so Sportivo Ameliano are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Sportivo Ameliano and 1.5 for Deportivo Recoleta (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sportivo Ameliano are averaging 1.29 points per game versus 1.52 for Deportivo Recoleta. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +23.5%. This match finished 3-1.

Sportivo Ameliano vs Deportivo Recoleta Prediction— Paraguay - Division Profesional - Clausura

Match Preview & Prediction

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