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R. Surdulica vs Novi Pazar Prediction— Serbia - Super Liga

Championship Group · Matchday 32 ·Wednesday, April 22, 2026, 15:00

R. Surdulica

PPG 1.67 · HOME

LAST 5

DLDDL

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Novi Pazar

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLWDL

// Model verdict

Home 48% chance

Model probability 51.4% vs bookmaker-implied 47.2% — a real, if thin, edge.

+9.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.5%0-17.4%0-23.7%0-31.2%0-4+0.4%1 1-011.9%1-111.9%1-25.9%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.5%2-19.5%2-24.7%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-05.1%3-15.1%3-22.5%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-12.9%4+-21.4%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.4% 47.2% 2.12 +9.0%

Draw 25.0% 30.8% 3.25 -18.8%

Away win 23.6% 31.3% 3.20 -24.5%

Over 2.5 48.0% 48.8% 2.05 -1.6%

Over 3.5 26.3% 27.0% 3.70 -2.7%

BTTS 50.3% 55.6% 1.80 -9.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -37.4%

Bet Hit 31%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob50.3%

H 51% / xG 1.6-1.0 / O2.5 48% / BTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 11.9%

#2 1–1 11.9%

#3 2–0✓ 9.5%

#4 2–1 9.5%

#5 0–0 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

R. Surdulica1.6

Novi Pazar1.0

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 48.0% · O3.5 PROB 26.3%

Form & verdict PPG

R. SURDULICA · PPG 1.67

NOVI PAZAR · PPG 1.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

48%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.67) > Away AVERAGE (1.33)

Win probability 1X2

R. Surdulica (H) 51.4%

ODDS 2.12 · IMPLIED 47.2% EV +9.0%

Draw 25.0%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -18.8%

Novi Pazar (A) 23.6%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -24.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

R. Surdulica face Novi Pazar in Serbia - Super Liga on Wednesday, April 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives R. Surdulica a 51% chance, the draw 25% and Novi Pazar 24%, so R. Surdulica are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for R. Surdulica and 1.0 for Novi Pazar (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, R. Surdulica are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 1.33 for Novi Pazar. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +9.0%. This match finished 2-0.

R. Surdulica vs Novi Pazar Prediction— Serbia - Super Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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