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San Martin S.J. vs Gimnasia Y Tiro Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Matchday 26 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 18:30

San Martin S.J.

PPG 1.60 · HOME

LAST 5

DDDWW

3 – 1

FULL TIME

Gimnasia Y Tiro

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDLW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.6%0-110.3%0-23.9%0-31.0%0-4+0.2%1 1-016.9%1-112.7%1-24.8%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-010.5%2-17.9%2-23.0%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-04.3%3-13.3%3-21.2%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-11.3%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.3% 52.4% 1.91 -15.4%

Draw 28.7% 33.9% 2.95 -9.2%

Away win 27.0% 23.8% 4.20 +8.0%

Over 2.5 38.0% 35.1% 2.85 +8.3%

Over 3.5 20.1% 16.7% 6.00 +12.4%

BTTS 45.7% 42.6% 2.35 +7.4%

Home O1.5 34.3% 40.0% 2.50 -14.2%

Away O1.5 17.9% 21.1% 4.75 -9.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 293 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 64%

ROI -5.1%

Bet Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 40%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob45.7%

H 44% / xG 1.2-0.8 / U2.5 38% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 16.9%

#2 0–0 13.6%

#3 1–1 12.7%

#4 0–1 10.3%

#5 2–0 10.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

San Martin S.J.1.2

Gimnasia Y Tiro0.8

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 38.0% · O3.5 PROB 20.1%

Form & verdict PPG

SAN MARTIN S.J. · PPG 1.60

GIMNASIA Y TIRO · PPG 1.25

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.48, combined xG 2.00 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

San Martin S.J. (H) 44.3%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV -15.4%

Draw 28.7%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV -9.2%

Gimnasia Y Tiro (A) 27.0%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +8.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

San Martin S.J. face Gimnasia Y Tiro in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives San Martin S.J. a 44% chance, the draw 29% and Gimnasia Y Tiro 27%, so San Martin S.J. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for San Martin S.J. and 0.8 for Gimnasia Y Tiro (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, San Martin S.J. are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 1.25 for Gimnasia Y Tiro. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +30.4%. This match finished 3-1.

San Martin S.J. vs Gimnasia Y Tiro Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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