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Patronato vs Gimnasia Jujuy Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Matchday 26 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 18:30

Patronato

PPG 1.27 · HOME

LAST 5

DLDWL

3 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Gimnasia Jujuy

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLWDD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.0% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.0%0-19.2%0-24.7%0-31.6%0-4+0.5%1 1-012.5%1-112.7%1-26.5%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.7%2-18.8%2-24.5%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-04.0%3-14.1%3-22.1%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-11.9%4+-21.0%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.0% 43.5% 2.30 +3.5%

Draw 26.4% 33.3% 3.00 -12.5%

Away win 28.7% 33.3% 3.00 -8.3%

Over 2.5 50.2% 44.4% 2.25 +13.0%

Over 3.5 29.0% 23.8% 4.20 +13.1%

BTTS 53.0% 54.1% 1.85 -1.9%

Home O1.5 38.7% 40.8% 2.45 -5.2%

Away O1.5 32.2% 33.3% 3.00 -3.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 293 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 64%

ROI -5.1%

Bet Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 21%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-3

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob53.0%

H 45% / xG 1.4-1.0 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.7%

#2 1–0 12.5%

#3 0–0 9.0%

#4 2–1 8.8%

#5 2–0 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Patronato1.4

Gimnasia Jujuy1.0

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.2% · O3.5 PROB 29.0%

Form & verdict PPG

PATRONATO · PPG 1.27

GIMNASIA JUJUY · PPG 1.00

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.37, combined xG 2.41 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Patronato (H) 45.0%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV +3.5%

Draw 26.4%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -12.5%

Gimnasia Jujuy (A) 28.7%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -8.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Patronato face Gimnasia Jujuy in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Patronato a 45% chance, the draw 26% and Gimnasia Jujuy 29%, so Patronato are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Patronato and 1.0 for Gimnasia Jujuy (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Patronato are averaging 1.27 points per game versus 1.00 for Gimnasia Jujuy. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +13.1%. This match finished 3-3.

Patronato vs Gimnasia Jujuy Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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