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Nueva Chicago vs Atlanta Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Matchday 26 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 18:30

Nueva Chicago

PPG 1.58 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLLL

0 – 1

FULL TIME

Atlanta

PPG 1.18 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWLL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.4%0-19.4%0-23.9%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-015.3%1-112.7%1-25.2%1-31.4%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.3%2-18.5%2-23.5%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-04.6%3-13.8%3-21.6%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-11.7%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.0% 37.0% 2.70 +29.6%

Draw 27.1% 36.4% 2.75 -15.3%

Away win 24.9% 37.0% 2.70 -19.7%

Over 2.5 47.8% 34.5% 2.90 +38.6%

Over 3.5 27.9% 15.4% 6.50 +48.8%

BTTS 49.1% 45.5% 2.20 +8.0%

Home O1.5 37.8% 29.9% 3.35 +26.6%

Away O1.5 22.5% 29.9% 3.35 -14.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 293 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 64%

ROI -5.1%

Bet Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob49.1%

H 48% / xG 1.3-0.8 / U2.5 48% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 15.3%

#2 1–1 12.7%

#3 0–0 11.4%

#4 2–0 10.3%

#5 0–1✓ 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Nueva Chicago1.3

Atlanta0.8

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.8% · O3.5 PROB 27.9%

Form & verdict PPG

NUEVA CHICAGO · PPG 1.58

ATLANTA · PPG 1.18

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.52 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Nueva Chicago (H) 48.0%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV +29.6%

Draw 27.1%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -15.3%

Atlanta (A) 24.9%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -19.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Nueva Chicago face Atlanta in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nueva Chicago a 48% chance, the draw 27% and Atlanta 25%, so Nueva Chicago are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Nueva Chicago and 0.8 for Atlanta (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nueva Chicago are averaging 1.58 points per game versus 1.18 for Atlanta. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +48.8%. This match finished 0-1.

Nueva Chicago vs Atlanta Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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