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Defensores De Belgrano vs Almirante Brown Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Matchday 26 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 18:30

Defensores De Belgrano

PPG 1.18 · HOME

LAST 5

DLDLL

0 – 2

FULL TIME

Almirante Brown

PPG 0.92 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLWW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-028.6%0-115.5%0-24.2%0-30.8%0-4+0.1%1 1-020.3%1-111.0%1-23.0%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-07.2%2-13.9%2-21.1%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-01.7%3-10.9%3-20.3%3-30.0%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.2%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.0% 47.6% 2.10 -26.5%

Draw 36.2% 38.5% 2.60 -5.9%

Away win 28.7% 24.4% 4.10 +10.6%

Over 2.5 33.3% 31.3% 3.20 +6.6%

Over 3.5 14.4% 12.5% 8.00 +9.1%

BTTS 43.6% 41.7% 2.40 +4.6%

Home O1.5 30.6% 35.1% 2.85 -12.8%

Away O1.5 16.4% 21.1% 4.75 -13.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 293 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 64%

ROI -5.1%

Bet Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 54%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob43.6%

D 36% / xG 0.7-0.5 / U2.5 33% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 28.6%

#2 1–0 20.3%

#3 0–1 15.5%

#4 1–1 11.0%

#5 2–0 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Defensores De Belgrano0.7

Almirante Brown0.5

COMBINED 1.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 33.3% · O3.5 PROB 14.4%

Form & verdict PPG

DEFENSORES DE BELGRANO · PPG 1.18

ALMIRANTE BROWN · PPG 0.92

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.17, combined xG 1.25 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Defensores De Belgrano (H) 35.0%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -26.5%

Draw 36.2%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV -5.9%

Almirante Brown (A) 28.7%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV +10.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Defensores De Belgrano face Almirante Brown in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Defensores De Belgrano a 35% chance, the draw 36% and Almirante Brown 29%, so a draw is the most likely result. Expected goals are 0.7 for Defensores De Belgrano and 0.5 for Almirante Brown (1.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 33% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Defensores De Belgrano are averaging 1.18 points per game versus 0.92 for Almirante Brown. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +9.1%. This match finished 0-2.

Defensores De Belgrano vs Almirante Brown Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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