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Almagro vs Colegiales Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Matchday 26 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 18:30

Almagro

PPG 1.67 · HOME

LAST 5

LDLDW

0 – 0

FULL TIME

Colegiales

PPG 0.42 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDLDW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.4%0-19.0%0-23.0%0-30.7%0-4+0.1%1 1-018.0%1-112.0%1-24.0%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.0%2-18.1%2-22.7%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-05.3%3-13.6%3-21.2%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-11.6%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.1% 38.2% 2.62 +26.0%

Draw 27.2% 36.4% 2.75 -15.1%

Away win 24.7% 35.1% 2.85 -17.8%

Over 2.5 42.7% 33.3% 3.00 +28.1%

Over 3.5 20.6% 14.3% 7.00 +26.5%

BTTS 47.6% 44.4% 2.25 +7.1%

Home O1.5 37.8% 30.3% 3.30 +24.7%

Away O1.5 17.9% 28.2% 3.55 -21.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 293 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 64%

ROI -5.1%

Bet Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 36%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob47.6%

H 48% / xG 1.3-0.7 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 18.0%

#2 0–0✓ 13.4%

#3 1–1 12.0%

#4 2–0 12.0%

#5 0–1 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Almagro1.3

Colegiales0.7

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.7% · O3.5 PROB 20.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ALMAGRO · PPG 1.67

COLEGIALES · PPG 0.42

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.67 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Almagro (H) 48.1%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV +26.0%

Draw 27.2%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -15.1%

Colegiales (A) 24.7%

ODDS 2.85 · IMPLIED 35.1% EV -17.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Almagro face Colegiales in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Almagro a 48% chance, the draw 27% and Colegiales 25%, so Almagro are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Almagro and 0.7 for Colegiales (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Almagro are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 0.42 for Colegiales. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +37.5%. This match finished 0-0.

Almagro vs Colegiales Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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