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Telavi vs Shturmi Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga 2

Regular Season - 8 ·Wednesday, April 22, 2026, 15:00

Telavi

PPG 2.00 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Shturmi

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-025.0%0-111.0%0-22.4%0-30.4%0-4+0.0%1 1-023.7%1-110.4%1-22.3%1-30.3%1-4+0.0%2 2-011.2%2-14.9%2-21.1%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-03.5%3-11.5%3-20.3%3-30.0%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-10.4%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.7% 42.0% 2.38 +11.2%

Draw 36.6% 31.3% 3.20 +17.1%

Away win 16.7% 38.2% 2.62 -56.3%

Over 2.5 16.3% 45.5% 2.20 -64.1%

Over 3.5 5.2% — — —

BTTS 21.7% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 37 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 43%

Score Hit 57%

ROI 1.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)0.4 BTTS prob21.7%

H 47% / xG 0.9-0.4 / U2.5 16% / NoBTTS 22%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 25.0%

#2 1–0 23.7%

#3 2–0 11.2%

#4 0–1 11.0%

#5 1–1✓ 10.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Telavi0.9

Shturmi0.4

COMBINED 1.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 16.3% · O3.5 PROB 5.2%

Form & verdict PPG

TELAVI · PPG 2.00

SHTURMI · PPG 1.50

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.00) > Away GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

Telavi (H) 46.7%

ODDS 2.38 · IMPLIED 42.0% EV +11.2%

Draw 36.6%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +17.1%

Shturmi (A) 16.7%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -56.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Telavi face Shturmi in Georgia - Erovnuli Liga 2 on Wednesday, April 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Telavi a 47% chance, the draw 37% and Shturmi 17%, so Telavi are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Telavi and 0.4 for Shturmi (1.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 16% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 22% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Telavi are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.50 for Shturmi. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +17.1%. This match finished 1-1.

Telavi vs Shturmi Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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