Today / Spaeri vs Iberia

Spaeri vs Iberia Prediction

Wednesday, April 22, 2026

Spaeri

PPG 1.33 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Iberia

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs Home AVERAGE (1.33)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.6%0-19.5%0-26.0%0-32.5%0-4+1.0%1 1-010.0%1-112.6%1-27.9%1-33.3%1-4+1.4%2 2-06.6%2-18.3%2-25.2%2-32.2%2-4+0.9%3 3-02.9%3-13.7%3-22.3%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.6%4+-21.0%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.4% — — —

Draw 26.5% — — —

Away win 35.2% — — —

Over 2.5 47.7% — — —

Over 3.5 26.0% — — —

BTTS 52.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 20%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob52.5%

H 38% / xG 1.3-1.3 / O2.5 48% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.6%

#2 1–0 10.0%

#3 0–1 9.5%

#4 2–1 8.3%

#5 1–2 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Spaeri1.3

Iberia1.3

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.7% · O3.5 PROB 26.0%

Form & verdict PPG

SPAERI · PPG 1.33

IBERIA · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs Home AVERAGE (1.33)

Win probability 1X2

Spaeri (H) 38.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 26.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Iberia (A) 35.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Spaeri face Iberia on Wednesday, April 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Spaeri a 38% chance, the draw 27% and Iberia 35%, so Spaeri are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Spaeri and 1.3 for Iberia (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Spaeri are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 2.00 for Iberia. This match finished 0-2.

Spaeri vs Iberia Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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