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Canuelas vs Leones de Rosario Prediction— Argentina - Primera C

Matchday 25 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 18:00

Canuelas

PPG 1.45 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLWW

1 – 0

FULL TIME

Leones de Rosario

PPG 1.55 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWLWW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-018.4%0-113.2%0-24.7%0-31.1%0-4+0.2%1 1-018.0%1-112.9%1-24.6%1-31.1%1-4+0.2%2 2-08.8%2-16.3%2-22.2%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-02.9%3-12.1%3-20.7%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-10.6%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.4% 30.8% 3.25 +24.8%

Draw 32.7% 36.4% 2.75 -10.1%

Away win 28.8% 44.4% 2.25 -21.1%

Over 2.5 34.5% 38.2% 2.62 -9.6%

Over 3.5 18.2% 20.0% 5.00 -5.4%

BTTS 43.6% 45.5% 2.20 -4.1%

Home O1.5 30.6% 26.7% 3.75 +14.8%

Away O1.5 17.9% 36.4% 2.75 -30.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 89 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 61%

ROI -66.8%

Bet Hit 14%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob43.6%

D 33% / xG 1.0-0.7 / U2.5 34% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 18.4%

#2 1–0✓ 18.0%

#3 0–1 13.2%

#4 1–1 12.9%

#5 2–0 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Canuelas1.0

Leones de Rosario0.7

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.5% · O3.5 PROB 18.2%

Form & verdict PPG

CANUELAS · PPG 1.45

LEONES DE ROSARIO · PPG 1.55

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.26, combined xG 1.69 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Canuelas (H) 38.4%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV +24.8%

Draw 32.7%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -10.1%

Leones de Rosario (A) 28.8%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -21.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Canuelas face Leones de Rosario in Argentina - Primera C on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Canuelas a 38% chance, the draw 33% and Leones de Rosario 29%, so Canuelas are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Canuelas and 0.7 for Leones de Rosario (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Canuelas are averaging 1.45 points per game versus 1.55 for Leones de Rosario. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +14.8%. This match finished 1-0.

Canuelas vs Leones de Rosario Prediction— Argentina - Primera C

Match Preview & Prediction

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