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Yupanqui vs Atletico Atlas Prediction— Argentina - Primera C

Matchday 25 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 18:00

Yupanqui

PPG 1.17 · HOME

LAST 5

LWDLL

0 – 2

FULL TIME

Atletico Atlas

PPG 1.18 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWWL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.4%0-111.1%0-24.6%0-31.3%0-4+0.3%1 1-015.8%1-113.1%1-25.4%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-09.3%2-17.8%2-23.2%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-03.7%3-13.1%3-21.3%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-11.2%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.2% 38.5% 2.60 +17.5%

Draw 27.8% 34.5% 2.90 -11.6%

Away win 27.0% 38.5% 2.60 -17.9%

Over 2.5 42.7% 45.5% 2.20 -6.1%

Over 3.5 20.6% 25.0% 4.00 -10.6%

BTTS 47.6% 54.6% 1.83 -12.9%

Home O1.5 32.4% 36.4% 2.75 -10.9%

Away O1.5 22.5% 36.4% 2.75 -22.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 89 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 61%

ROI -66.8%

Bet Hit 14%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob47.6%

H 45% / xG 1.2-0.8 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 15.8%

#2 0–0 13.4%

#3 1–1 13.1%

#4 0–1 11.1%

#5 2–0 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Yupanqui1.2

Atletico Atlas0.8

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.7% · O3.5 PROB 20.6%

Form & verdict PPG

YUPANQUI · PPG 1.17

ATLETICO ATLAS · PPG 1.18

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.35, combined xG 2.01 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Yupanqui (H) 45.2%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV +17.5%

Draw 27.8%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -11.6%

Atletico Atlas (A) 27.0%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV -17.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Yupanqui face Atletico Atlas in Argentina - Primera C on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Yupanqui a 45% chance, the draw 28% and Atletico Atlas 27%, so Yupanqui are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Yupanqui and 0.8 for Atletico Atlas (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Yupanqui are averaging 1.17 points per game versus 1.18 for Atletico Atlas. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +10.2%. This match finished 0-2.

Yupanqui vs Atletico Atlas Prediction— Argentina - Primera C

Match Preview & Prediction

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