Today / Iberia vs Spaeri

Iberia vs Spaeri Prediction

Wednesday, April 22, 2026

Iberia

PPG 2.00 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Spaeri

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Balanced matchup: Home EXCELLENT (2.00), Away GOOD (1.75)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.7%0-14.7%0-21.9%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-011.7%1-19.5%1-23.9%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-012.0%2-19.8%2-24.0%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-08.2%3-16.6%3-22.7%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-06.7%4+-15.4%4+-22.2%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 66.0% — — —

Draw 20.1% — — —

Away win 13.9% — — —

Over 2.5 54.4% — — —

Over 3.5 32.1% — — —

BTTS 48.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob48.5%

H 66% / xG 2.0-0.8 / O2.5 54% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0✓ 12.0%

#2 1–0 11.7%

#3 2–1 9.8%

#4 1–1 9.5%

#5 3–0 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Iberia2.0

Spaeri0.8

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.4% · O3.5 PROB 32.1%

Form & verdict PPG

IBERIA · PPG 2.00

SPAERI · PPG 1.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home EXCELLENT (2.00), Away GOOD (1.75)

Win probability 1X2

Iberia (H) 66.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 20.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Spaeri (A) 13.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Iberia face Spaeri on Wednesday, April 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Iberia a 66% chance, the draw 20% and Spaeri 14%, so Iberia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Iberia and 0.8 for Spaeri (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Iberia are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.75 for Spaeri. This match finished 2-0.

Iberia vs Spaeri Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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