Today / Argentina - Primera C / Mercedes vs Sacachispas

Mercedes vs Sacachispas Prediction— Argentina - Primera C

Matchday 25 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 18:00

Mercedes

PPG 1.82 · HOME

LAST 5

DLLWL

2 – 0

FULL TIME

Sacachispas

PPG 1.36 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDLW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-021.0%0-114.8%0-25.2%0-31.2%0-4+0.3%1 1-018.0%1-112.7%1-24.5%1-31.1%1-4+0.2%2 2-07.7%2-15.4%2-21.9%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-02.2%3-11.5%3-20.5%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.4%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.1% 33.3% 3.00 +2.3%

Draw 32.1% 37.0% 2.70 -13.3%

Away win 33.8% 39.2% 2.55 -13.8%

Over 2.5 34.5% 40.0% 2.50 -13.8%

Over 3.5 15.6% 22.2% 4.50 -17.9%

BTTS 43.6% 47.6% 2.10 -8.4%

Home O1.5 30.6% 29.4% 3.40 +4.0%

Away O1.5 17.9% 33.3% 3.00 -27.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 89 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 61%

ROI -66.8%

Bet Hit 14%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob43.6%

D 32% / xG 0.9-0.7 / U2.5 34% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 21.0%

#2 0–1 14.8%

#3 1–0 18.0%

#4 1–1 12.7%

#5 2–0✓ 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Mercedes0.9

Sacachispas0.7

COMBINED 1.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.5% · O3.5 PROB 15.6%

Form & verdict PPG

MERCEDES · PPG 1.82

SACACHISPAS · PPG 1.36

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.15, combined xG 1.56 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Mercedes (H) 34.1%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV +2.3%

Draw 32.1%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -13.3%

Sacachispas (A) 33.8%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV -13.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Mercedes face Sacachispas in Argentina - Primera C on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Mercedes a 34% chance, the draw 32% and Sacachispas 34%, so Mercedes are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Mercedes and 0.7 for Sacachispas (1.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Mercedes are averaging 1.82 points per game versus 1.36 for Sacachispas. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +4.0%. This match finished 2-0.

Mercedes vs Sacachispas Prediction— Argentina - Primera C

Match Preview & Prediction

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