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Leandro N. Alem vs Lugano Prediction— Argentina - Primera C

Matchday 25 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 18:00

Leandro N. Alem

PPG 1.64 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLLL 

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Lugano

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDLWD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.7% vs bookmaker-implied 51.0% — a real, if thin, edge.

+7.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.8%0-19.2%0-27.3%0-33.8%0-4+2.1%1 1-07.4%1-111.6%1-29.2%1-34.8%1-4+2.7%2 2-04.6%2-17.3%2-25.8%2-33.0%2-4+1.7%3 3-02.0%3-13.1%3-22.4%3-31.3%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.3%4+-21.0%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.3% 38.5% 2.60 -18.6%

Draw 24.7% 34.5% 2.90 -17.0%

Away win 44.1% 40.0% 2.50 +10.3%

Over 2.5 53.9% 42.0% 2.38 +28.3%

Over 3.5 31.6% 22.2% 4.50 +42.2%

BTTS 54.7% 51.0% 1.96 +7.2%

Home O1.5 37.5% 41.7% 2.40 -10.0%

Away O1.5 48.5% 41.7% 2.40 +16.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 89 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 61%

ROI -66.8%

Bet Hit 14%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob54.7%

A 44% / xG 1.3-1.6 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.6%

#2 1–2 9.2%

#3 2–1 7.3%

#4 0–1✓ 9.2%

#5 0–2 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Leandro N. Alem1.3

Lugano1.6

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

LEANDRO N. ALEM · PPG 1.64

LUGANO · PPG 1.33

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.32 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Leandro N. Alem (H) 31.3%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV -18.6%

Draw 24.7%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -17.0%

Lugano (A) 44.1%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +10.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Leandro N. Alem face Lugano in Argentina - Primera C on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Leandro N. Alem a 31% chance, the draw 25% and Lugano 44%, so Lugano are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Leandro N. Alem and 1.6 for Lugano (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Leandro N. Alem are averaging 1.64 points per game versus 1.33 for Lugano. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +57.5%. This match finished 0-1.

Leandro N. Alem vs Lugano Prediction— Argentina - Primera C

Match Preview & Prediction

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