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Tristan Suarez vs Agropecuario Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Matchday 26 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 18:00

Tristan Suarez

PPG 1.92 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWWL

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Agropecuario

PPG 0.58 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWLD

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 59.4% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+6.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.2%0-15.3%0-21.1%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-020.4%1-18.8%1-21.9%1-30.3%1-4+0.0%2 2-017.1%2-17.3%2-21.6%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-09.5%3-14.1%3-20.9%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-05.8%4+-12.5%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 59.4% 55.6% 1.80 +6.9%

Draw 23.9% 33.3% 3.00 -17.0%

Away win 16.7% 20.0% 5.00 -9.9%

Over 2.5 44.8% 32.3% 3.10 +38.9%

Over 3.5 26.4% 15.4% 6.50 +43.0%

BTTS 43.6% 40.0% 2.50 +9.0%

Home O1.5 48.5% 38.2% 2.62 +27.1%

Away O1.5 11.1% 18.2% 5.50 -23.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 293 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 64%

ROI -5.1%

Bet Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 45%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.4 BTTS prob43.6%

H 59% / xG 1.7-0.4 / U2.5 45% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 20.4%

#2 2–0✓ 17.1%

#3 0–0 12.2%

#4 1–1 8.8%

#5 0–1 5.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tristan Suarez1.7

Agropecuario0.4

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.8% · O3.5 PROB 26.4%

Form & verdict PPG

TRISTAN SUAREZ · PPG 1.92

AGROPECUARIO · PPG 0.58

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.24 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Tristan Suarez (H) 59.4%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV +6.9%

Draw 23.9%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -17.0%

Agropecuario (A) 16.7%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV -9.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tristan Suarez face Agropecuario in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tristan Suarez a 59% chance, the draw 24% and Agropecuario 17%, so Tristan Suarez are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Tristan Suarez and 0.4 for Agropecuario (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tristan Suarez are averaging 1.92 points per game versus 0.58 for Agropecuario. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +43.0%. This match finished 2-0.

Tristan Suarez vs Agropecuario Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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