Today / Egypt - Premier League / Al Masry vs ENPPI

Al Masry vs ENPPI Prediction— Egypt - Premier League

Championship Group - 3 ·Wednesday, April 22, 2026, 15:00

Al Masry

PPG 1.91 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

ENPPI

PPG 1.36 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 52.0% vs bookmaker-implied 46.7% — a clear edge.

+11.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.7%0-18.6%0-23.4%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-015.3%1-112.3%1-24.9%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.0%2-18.8%2-23.5%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-05.3%3-14.2%3-21.7%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-12.1%4+-20.8%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.0% 46.7% 2.14 +11.3%

Draw 27.0% 33.6% 2.98 -19.5%

Away win 21.0% 28.6% 3.50 -26.5%

Over 2.5 38.7% 38.5% 2.60 +0.6%

Over 3.5 18.8% 19.0% 5.25 -1.3%

BTTS 42.0% 47.6% 2.10 -11.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -23.4%

Bet Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob42.0%

H 52% / xG 1.4-0.8 / U2.5 39% / NoBTTS 42%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 15.3%

#2 1–1 12.3%

#3 2–0 11.0%

#4 0–0 10.7%

#5 2–1 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Masry1.4

ENPPI0.8

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 38.7% · O3.5 PROB 18.8%

Form & verdict PPG

AL MASRY · PPG 1.91

ENPPI · PPG 1.36

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.91) > Away AVERAGE (1.36)

Win probability 1X2

Al Masry (H) 52.0%

ODDS 2.14 · IMPLIED 46.7% EV +11.3%

Draw 27.0%

ODDS 2.98 · IMPLIED 33.6% EV -19.5%

ENPPI (A) 21.0%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -26.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Masry face ENPPI in Egypt - Premier League on Wednesday, April 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Masry a 52% chance, the draw 27% and ENPPI 21%, so Al Masry are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Al Masry and 0.8 for ENPPI (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 39% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Masry are averaging 1.91 points per game versus 1.36 for ENPPI. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +11.3%. This match finished 2-2.

Al Masry vs ENPPI Prediction— Egypt - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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