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Valencia vs Celta Vigo Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Matchday 2 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 17:30

Valencia

PPG 1.55 · HOME

LAST 5

DLL ··

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Celta Vigo

PPG 1.58 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLL ··

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.0% vs bookmaker-implied 52.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.8%0-18.5%0-24.6%0-31.6%0-4+0.6%1 1-011.5%1-112.4%1-26.7%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.5%2-19.1%2-24.9%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-04.1%3-14.5%3-22.4%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-12.3%4+-21.2%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.1% 43.9% 2.28 +5.1%

Draw 25.7% 31.3% 3.20 -10.7%

Away win 28.1% 31.7% 3.15 -6.9%

Over 2.5 51.0% 45.5% 2.20 +12.2%

Over 3.5 30.9% 23.8% 4.20 +29.8%

BTTS 54.0% 52.6% 1.90 +2.6%

Home O1.5 40.0% 41.7% 2.40 -4.0%

Away O1.5 34.9% 33.3% 3.00 +4.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 92 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -2.3%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.0%

H 46% / xG 1.5-1.1 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 1–0 11.5%

#3 2–1 9.1%

#4 2–0 8.5%

#5 0–0✓ 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Valencia1.5

Celta Vigo1.1

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.0% · O3.5 PROB 30.9%

Form & verdict PPG

VALENCIA · PPG 1.55

CELTA VIGO · PPG 1.58

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.39 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Valencia (H) 46.1%

ODDS 2.28 · IMPLIED 43.9% EV +5.1%

Draw 25.7%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -10.7%

Celta Vigo (A) 28.1%

ODDS 3.15 · IMPLIED 31.7% EV -6.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Valencia face Celta Vigo in Spain - La Liga on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Valencia a 46% chance, the draw 26% and Celta Vigo 28%, so Valencia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Valencia and 1.1 for Celta Vigo (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Valencia are averaging 1.55 points per game versus 1.58 for Celta Vigo. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +29.8%. This match finished 0-0.

Valencia vs Celta Vigo Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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