Today / Egypt - Premier League / AL Masry vs Smouha SC

AL Masry vs Smouha SC Prediction— Egypt - Premier League

Matchday 1 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 17:00

AL Masry

PPG 1.62 · HOME

LAST 5

WWL ··

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Smouha SC

PPG 1.23 · AWAY

LAST 5

LD ···

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 51.5% vs bookmaker-implied 47.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+8.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.4%0-110.2%0-25.0%0-31.6%0-4+0.5%1 1-013.4%1-113.1%1-26.4%1-32.1%1-4+0.6%2 2-08.6%2-18.4%2-24.1%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-03.7%3-13.6%3-21.8%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-11.5%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.9% 50.5% 1.98 -11.1%

Draw 26.5% 34.2% 2.92 -13.6%

Away win 28.6% 24.4% 4.10 +10.4%

Over 2.5 46.9% 38.5% 2.60 +21.9%

Over 3.5 27.6% 20.0% 5.00 +22.8%

BTTS 51.5% 47.6% 2.10 +8.2%

Home O1.5 37.8% 40.8% 2.45 -7.4%

Away O1.5 27.9% 23.1% 4.33 +12.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 72 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 49%

ROI -0.5%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob51.5%

H 45% / xG 1.3-1.0 / U2.5 47% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.1%

#2 1–0✓ 13.4%

#3 0–0 10.4%

#4 2–0 8.6%

#5 2–1 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

AL Masry1.3

Smouha SC1.0

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.9% · O3.5 PROB 27.6%

Form & verdict PPG

AL MASRY · PPG 1.62

SMOUHA SC · PPG 1.23

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.31, combined xG 2.26 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

AL Masry (H) 44.9%

ODDS 1.98 · IMPLIED 50.5% EV -11.1%

Draw 26.5%

ODDS 2.92 · IMPLIED 34.2% EV -13.6%

Smouha SC (A) 28.6%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV +10.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

AL Masry face Smouha SC in Egypt - Premier League on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives AL Masry a 45% chance, the draw 27% and Smouha SC 29%, so AL Masry are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for AL Masry and 1.0 for Smouha SC (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, AL Masry are averaging 1.62 points per game versus 1.23 for Smouha SC. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +29.3%. This match finished 1-0.

AL Masry vs Smouha SC Prediction— Egypt - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Egypt - Premier League Predictions