Today / Samorin vs L. Mikulas

Samorin vs L. Mikulas Prediction

Wednesday, April 22, 2026

Samorin

PPG 1.17 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

L. Mikulas

PPG 0.92 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.9 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.9%0-13.8%0-23.7%0-32.4%0-4+1.8%1 1-03.9%1-17.5%1-27.3%1-34.8%1-4+3.6%2 2-03.9%2-17.5%2-27.3%2-34.7%2-4+3.6%3 3-02.6%3-15.0%3-24.9%3-33.2%3-4+2.4%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-14.0%4+-23.8%4+-32.5%4+-4+1.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.6% — — —

Draw 20.9% — — —

Away win 38.6% — — —

Over 2.5 75.3% — — —

Over 3.5 55.5% — — —

BTTS 74.0% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 59%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob74.0%

H 41% / xG 2.0-1.9 / O2.5 75% / BTTS 74%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 7.5%

#2 2–1 7.5%

#3 1–2 7.3%

#4 2–2 7.3%

#5 3–1 5.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Samorin2.0

L. Mikulas1.9

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 75.3% · O3.5 PROB 55.5%

Form & verdict PPG

SAMORIN · PPG 1.17

L. MIKULAS · PPG 0.92

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.17), Away POOR (0.92)

Win probability 1X2

Samorin (H) 40.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 20.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

L. Mikulas (A) 38.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Samorin face L. Mikulas on Wednesday, April 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Samorin a 41% chance, the draw 21% and L. Mikulas 39%, so Samorin are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Samorin and 1.9 for L. Mikulas (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 75% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 74% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Samorin are averaging 1.17 points per game versus 0.92 for L. Mikulas. This match finished 1-1.

Samorin vs L. Mikulas Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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