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Aragvi Dusheti vs Gori Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga 2

Matchday 22 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 17:00

Aragvi Dusheti

PPG 1.90 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWWD

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Gori

PPG 0.64 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLLW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.2 puts the goal expectation near the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.2%0-18.0%0-22.9%0-30.7%0-4+0.1%1 1-016.4%1-111.8%1-24.3%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.1%2-18.7%2-23.1%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-06.0%3-14.3%3-21.5%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.0%4+-12.2%4+-20.8%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.8% — — —

Draw 25.7% — — —

Away win 24.5% — — —

Over 2.5 50.0% — — —

Over 3.5 28.1% — — —

BTTS 48.1% — — —

Home O1.5 40.0% — — —

Away O1.5 17.9% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 57 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 40%

Score Hit 53%

ROI 30.0%

Bet Hit 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0✓ 16.4%

#2 1–1 11.8%

#3 2–0 12.1%

#4 0–0 11.2%

#5 0–1 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Aragvi Dusheti1.5

Gori0.7

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.0% · O3.5 PROB 28.1%

Form & verdict PPG

ARAGVI DUSHETI · PPG 1.90

GORI · PPG 0.64

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.76 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Aragvi Dusheti (H) 49.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 25.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Gori (A) 24.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Aragvi Dusheti face Gori in Georgia - Erovnuli Liga 2 on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Aragvi Dusheti a 50% chance, the draw 26% and Gori 25%, so Aragvi Dusheti are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Aragvi Dusheti and 0.7 for Gori (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Aragvi Dusheti are averaging 1.90 points per game versus 0.64 for Gori. This match finished 1-0.

Aragvi Dusheti vs Gori Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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