Today / Usce Novi B. vs Dubocica

Usce Novi B. vs Dubocica Prediction

Wednesday, April 22, 2026

Usce Novi B.

PPG 1.07 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Dubocica

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.07) > Away POOR (0.50)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.7%0-17.6%0-23.0%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-015.0%1-111.8%1-24.6%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.6%2-19.1%2-23.6%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-06.0%3-14.7%3-21.9%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.3%4+-12.6%4+-21.0%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.3% — — —

Draw 25.6% — — —

Away win 19.0% — — —

Over 2.5 41.3% — — —

Over 3.5 20.7% — — —

BTTS 42.9% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 45%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob42.9%

H 55% / xG 1.5-0.8 / U2.5 41% / NoBTTS 43%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 15.0%

#2 1–1 11.8%

#3 2–0 11.6%

#4 0–0 9.7%

#5 2–1✓ 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Usce Novi B.1.5

Dubocica0.8

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 41.3% · O3.5 PROB 20.7%

Form & verdict PPG

USCE NOVI B. · PPG 1.07

DUBOCICA · PPG 0.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.07) > Away POOR (0.50)

Win probability 1X2

Usce Novi B. (H) 55.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 25.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Dubocica (A) 19.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Usce Novi B. face Dubocica on Wednesday, April 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Usce Novi B. a 55% chance, the draw 26% and Dubocica 19%, so Usce Novi B. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Usce Novi B. and 0.8 for Dubocica (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 41% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 43% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Usce Novi B. are averaging 1.07 points per game versus 0.50 for Dubocica. This match finished 2-1.

Usce Novi B. vs Dubocica Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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