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Naftan vs Neman Prediction— Belarus - Vysshaya Liga

Matchday 19 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 14:45

Naftan

PPG 1.00 · HOME

LAST 5

DWLLL

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Neman

PPG 1.38 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLWWW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.0% vs bookmaker-implied 51.3% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.6%0-114.3%0-210.7%0-35.3%0-4+2.7%1 1-08.2%1-112.2%1-29.1%1-34.5%1-4+2.3%2 2-03.5%2-15.2%2-23.9%2-31.9%2-4+1.0%3 3-01.0%3-11.5%3-21.1%3-30.5%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.4%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 26.5% 14.3% 7.00 +51.3%

Draw 26.2% 25.6% 3.90 +1.3%

Away win 47.3% 71.4% 1.40 -33.8%

Over 2.5 50.2% 54.6% 1.83 -8.1%

Over 3.5 30.2% 34.0% 2.94 -11.2%

BTTS 53.0% 51.3% 1.95 +3.4%

Home O1.5 30.6% 18.0% 5.55 +69.8%

Away O1.5 41.2% 63.3% 1.58 -34.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 43%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -48.9%

Bet Hit 27%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob53.0%

A 47% / xG 0.9-1.5 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 0–1 14.3%

#3 0–2✓ 10.7%

#4 0–0 9.6%

#5 1–0 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Naftan0.9

Neman1.5

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.2% · O3.5 PROB 30.2%

Form & verdict PPG

NAFTAN · PPG 1.00

NEMAN · PPG 1.38

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.64 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Naftan (H) 26.5%

ODDS 7.00 · IMPLIED 14.3% EV +51.3%

Draw 26.2%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV +1.3%

Neman (A) 47.3%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -33.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Naftan face Neman in Belarus - Vysshaya Liga on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Naftan a 27% chance, the draw 26% and Neman 47%, so Neman are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Naftan and 1.5 for Neman (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Naftan are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.38 for Neman. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +69.8%. This match finished 0-2.

Naftan vs Neman Prediction— Belarus - Vysshaya Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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