Today / Egypt - Premier League / El Geish vs El Mokawloon

El Geish vs El Mokawloon Prediction— Egypt - Premier League

Matchday 1 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 14:00

El Geish logo
El Geish
PPG 1.50 · HOME
LAST 5
WWL ··
1 – 0
FULL TIME
El Mokawloon logo
El Mokawloon
PPG 1.26 · AWAY
LAST 5
LL ···

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-018.0%0-115.2%0-26.4%0-31.8%0-4+0.5%1 1-015.6%1-113.2%1-25.6%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-06.8%2-15.7%2-22.4%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-02.0%3-11.7%3-20.7%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.4%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%
Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV
Home win 36.2% 35.7% 2.80 +1.4%
Draw 33.9% 37.6% 2.66 -9.8%
Away win 29.9% 35.7% 2.80 -9.8%
Over 2.5 34.5% 32.3% 3.10 +7.0%
Over 3.5 18.2% 15.4% 6.50 +11.0%
BTTS 43.6% 42.6% 2.35 +2.5%
Home O1.5 30.6% 27.0% 3.70 +13.2%
Away O1.5 22.7% 27.0% 3.70 -9.6%

League track record

Based on 72 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%
O2.5 60%
BTTS 56%
Score Hit 49%
ROI -0.5%
Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 55%CONFIDENCE
✘ MISS — FT 1-0
xG (home)0.9 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob43.6%

D 34% / xG 0.9-0.8 / U2.5 34% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 18.0%
#2 1–0 15.6%
#3 1–1 13.2%
#4 0–1 15.2%
#5 2–0 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

El Geish0.9
El Mokawloon0.8

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.5% · O3.5 PROB 18.2%

Form & verdict PPG

EL GEISH · PPG 1.50

EL MOKAWLOON · PPG 1.26

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected
65%
HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.02, combined xG 1.71 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

El Geish (H) 36.2%
ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV +1.4%
Draw 33.9%
ODDS 2.66 · IMPLIED 37.6% EV -9.8%
El Mokawloon (A) 29.9%
ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -9.8%

Season Statistics average per match · 2 matches · 2026

El Geish ▾ lower is better El Mokawloon

Attack

10.5
Shots
7.5
5.0
Shots on target
4.0
4.5
Shots off target
3.5
1.0
Blocked shots
0.0
7.0
Shots inside box
3.0
3.5
Shots outside box
4.5
47.6%
Shooting accuracy
53.3%
40.0%
Goals per shot on target
25.0%
2.00
Goals
1.00
0.61
xG for
0.30

Defence

12.0
Shots faced
13.0
4.5
Shots on target faced
6.0
1.00
Goals conceded
2.00
0.74
xG against
0.99
3.0
Goalkeeper saves
4.0

Control

51.0%
Possession
46.5%
356
Passes
316
268
Accurate passes
222
75.4%
Pass accuracy
70.2%
2.5
Corners
3.5
9.0
Corners faced
5.5
3.0
Offsides
0.5

Discipline

9.0
Fouls
17.5
1.5
Yellow cards
2.0
0.50
Red cards
0.00

Match Preview & Prediction

El Geish face El Mokawloon in Egypt - Premier League on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives El Geish a 36% chance, the draw 34% and El Mokawloon 30%, so El Geish are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for El Geish and 0.8 for El Mokawloon (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, El Geish are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.26 for El Mokawloon. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +13.2%. This match finished 1-0.

PredictVantage

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