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Hercules vs SC Genemuiden Prediction— Netherlands - Derde Divisie

Matchday 2 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 13:30

Hercules

PPG 1.79 · HOME

LAST 5

LLL ··

0 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

SC Genemuiden

PPG 1.56 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWW ··

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.1%0-16.4%0-25.0%0-32.6%0-4+1.4%1 1-06.7%1-110.5%1-28.2%1-34.2%1-4+2.3%2 2-05.5%2-18.5%2-26.7%2-33.5%2-4+1.9%3 3-03.0%3-14.6%3-23.6%3-31.9%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-12.7%4+-22.1%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.7% — — —

Draw 25.3% — — —

Away win 37.0% — — —

Over 2.5 55.5% — — —

Over 3.5 36.6% — — —

BTTS 54.7% — — —

Home O1.5 47.4% — — —

Away O1.5 48.5% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 11 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 27%

O2.5 82%

BTTS 73%

Score Hit 27%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.5%

#2 1–2 8.2%

#3 2–1 8.5%

#4 2–2 6.7%

#5 2–0 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hercules1.6

SC Genemuiden1.6

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 55.5% · O3.5 PROB 36.6%

Form & verdict PPG

HERCULES · PPG 1.79

SC GENEMUIDEN · PPG 1.56

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.07 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Hercules (H) 37.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 25.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

SC Genemuiden (A) 37.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Hercules face SC Genemuiden in Netherlands - Derde Divisie on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hercules a 38% chance, the draw 25% and SC Genemuiden 37%, so Hercules are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Hercules and 1.6 for SC Genemuiden (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hercules are averaging 1.79 points per game versus 1.56 for SC Genemuiden. This match finished 0-4.

Hercules vs SC Genemuiden Prediction— Netherlands - Derde Divisie

Match Preview & Prediction

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