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Zemun vs Macva Sabac Prediction— Serbia - Prva Liga

Championship Group - 32 ·Wednesday, April 22, 2026, 13:00

Zemun

PPG 2.38 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Macva Sabac

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 60.8% vs bookmaker-implied 44.4% — a clear edge.

+36.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.3%0-16.3%0-22.4%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-014.4%1-110.9%1-24.1%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.5%2-19.4%2-23.6%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-07.2%3-15.4%3-22.1%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-04.6%4+-13.5%4+-21.3%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 60.8% 44.4% 2.25 +36.8%

Draw 23.3% 32.3% 3.10 -27.8%

Away win 15.9% 34.7% 2.88 -54.2%

Over 2.5 45.3% — — —

Over 3.5 24.0% — — —

BTTS 43.6% 48.8% 2.05 -10.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 37%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -32.6%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 38%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob43.6%

H 61% / xG 1.7-0.8 / O2.5 45% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 14.4%

#2 2–0✓ 12.5%

#3 1–1 10.9%

#4 2–1 9.4%

#5 0–0 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Zemun1.7

Macva Sabac0.8

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.3% · O3.5 PROB 24.0%

Form & verdict PPG

ZEMUN · PPG 2.38

MACVA SABAC · PPG 1.40

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

95%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.38) vs P(Home)=60.8%

Win probability 1X2

Zemun (H) 60.8%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV +36.8%

Draw 23.3%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -27.8%

Macva Sabac (A) 15.9%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -54.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Zemun face Macva Sabac in Serbia - Prva Liga on Wednesday, April 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Zemun a 61% chance, the draw 23% and Macva Sabac 16%, so Zemun are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Zemun and 0.8 for Macva Sabac (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Zemun are averaging 2.38 points per game versus 1.40 for Macva Sabac. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +36.8%. This match finished 2-0.

Zemun vs Macva Sabac Prediction— Serbia - Prva Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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