Today / Wales - FAW Championship / Guilsfield vs Ruthin Town

Guilsfield vs Ruthin Town Prediction— Wales - FAW Championship

North · Matchday 4 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 13:30

Guilsfield

PPG 1.95 · HOME

LAST 5

WDDLW

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Ruthin Town

PPG 0.72 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWDLL

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 65.1% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.4%0-13.7%0-22.0%0-30.7%0-4+0.3%1 1-07.8%1-18.5%1-24.6%1-31.7%1-4+0.6%2 2-08.9%2-19.7%2-25.3%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-06.8%3-17.4%3-24.1%3-31.5%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-06.7%4+-17.3%4+-24.0%4+-31.5%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.6% 66.7% 1.50 -16.6%

Draw 22.1% 25.6% 3.90 -8.3%

Away win 22.3% 20.8% 4.80 +4.2%

Over 2.5 63.1% 66.7% 1.50 -5.3%

Over 3.5 39.4% 48.5% 2.06 -18.8%

BTTS 61.3% 66.7% 1.50 -8.1%

Home O1.5 65.1% 71.4% 1.40 -8.9%

Away O1.5 35.4% 35.2% 2.84 +0.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 28%

ROI 25.0%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 55%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob61.3%

H 56% / xG 2.3-1.1 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.5%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 2–0 8.9%

#4 1–2 4.6%

#5 3–1 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Guilsfield2.3

Ruthin Town1.1

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.1% · O3.5 PROB 39.4%

Form & verdict PPG

GUILSFIELD · PPG 1.95

RUTHIN TOWN · PPG 0.72

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.21 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Guilsfield (H) 55.6%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV -16.6%

Draw 22.1%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -8.3%

Ruthin Town (A) 22.3%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV +4.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Guilsfield face Ruthin Town in Wales - FAW Championship on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Guilsfield a 56% chance, the draw 22% and Ruthin Town 22%, so Guilsfield are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Guilsfield and 1.1 for Ruthin Town (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Guilsfield are averaging 1.95 points per game versus 0.72 for Ruthin Town. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +10.4%. This match finished 2-2.

Guilsfield vs Ruthin Town Prediction— Wales - FAW Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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