Today / Wales - FAW Championship / Caersws vs Newtown AFC

Caersws vs Newtown AFC Prediction— Wales - FAW Championship

North · Matchday 4 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 13:30

Caersws

PPG 1.80 · HOME

LAST 5

DWLWW

UPCOMING

Newtown AFC

PPG 1.73 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDWW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 62.4% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.6%0-17.4%0-26.1%0-33.3%0-4+1.9%1 1-06.6%1-110.8%1-28.8%1-34.8%1-4+2.8%2 2-04.8%2-17.9%2-26.4%2-33.5%2-4+2.1%3 3-02.3%3-13.8%3-23.1%3-31.7%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.9%4+-21.6%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 33.5% 40.0% 2.50 -16.3%

Draw 22.9% 29.4% 3.40 -13.3%

Away win 43.6% 43.5% 2.30 +0.3%

Over 2.5 62.4% 65.4% 1.53 -4.5%

Over 3.5 38.5% 44.8% 2.23 -14.1%

BTTS 61.3% 69.4% 1.44 -11.7%

Home O1.5 40.0% 51.3% 1.95 -22.0%

Away O1.5 48.5% 54.3% 1.84 -10.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 28%

ROI 25.0%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 51%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob61.3%

A 44% / xG 1.5-1.6 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.8%

#2 1–2 8.8%

#3 2–1 7.9%

#4 0–2 6.1%

#5 0–1 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Caersws1.5

Newtown AFC1.6

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.4% · O3.5 PROB 38.5%

Form & verdict PPG

CAERSWS · PPG 1.80

NEWTOWN AFC · PPG 1.73

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.18 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Caersws (H) 33.5%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -16.3%

Draw 22.9%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -13.3%

Newtown AFC (A) 43.6%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV +0.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Caersws face Newtown AFC in Wales - FAW Championship on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Caersws a 34% chance, the draw 23% and Newtown AFC 44%, so Newtown AFC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Caersws and 1.6 for Newtown AFC (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Caersws are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 1.73 for Newtown AFC.

Caersws vs Newtown AFC Prediction— Wales - FAW Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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