Today / Paraguay - Division Intermedia / Independiente F.b.c. vs General Caballero

Independiente F.b.c. vs General Caballero Prediction— Paraguay - Division Intermedia

Matchday 20 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 13:00

Independiente F.b.c.

PPG 1.33 · HOME

LAST 5

DDWDL

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

General Caballero

PPG 1.56 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWDW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 62.6% vs bookmaker-implied 51.3% — a clear edge.

+22.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.1%0-17.1%0-26.0%0-33.4%0-4+2.2%1 1-06.1%1-110.4%1-28.9%1-35.1%1-4+3.2%2 2-04.5%2-17.7%2-26.6%2-33.7%2-4+2.3%3 3-02.2%3-13.8%3-23.2%3-31.8%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.9%4+-21.7%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 33.4% 30.8% 3.25 +8.6%

Draw 23.1% 32.3% 3.10 -17.0%

Away win 43.5% 48.8% 2.05 -10.8%

Over 2.5 62.6% 51.3% 1.95 +22.1%

Over 3.5 38.7% 30.5% 3.28 +26.9%

BTTS 61.3% 57.1% 1.75 +7.3%

Home O1.5 40.0% 34.1% 2.93 +17.2%

Away O1.5 48.5% 48.3% 2.07 +0.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 54%

ROI -43.1%

Bet Hit 31%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob61.3%

A 44% / xG 1.5-1.7 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.4%

#2 1–2 8.9%

#3 2–1 7.7%

#4 0–2 6.0%

#5 2–2 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Independiente F.b.c.1.5

General Caballero1.7

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.6% · O3.5 PROB 38.7%

Form & verdict PPG

INDEPENDIENTE F.B.C. · PPG 1.33

GENERAL CABALLERO · PPG 1.56

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.23 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Independiente F.b.c. (H) 33.4%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV +8.6%

Draw 23.1%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -17.0%

General Caballero (A) 43.5%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -10.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Independiente F.b.c. face General Caballero in Paraguay - Division Intermedia on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Independiente F.b.c. a 33% chance, the draw 23% and General Caballero 44%, so General Caballero are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Independiente F.b.c. and 1.7 for General Caballero (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Independiente F.b.c. are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 1.56 for General Caballero. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +29.6%. This match finished 0-0.

Independiente F.b.c. vs General Caballero Prediction— Paraguay - Division Intermedia

Match Preview & Prediction

More Paraguay - Division Intermedia Predictions