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Atlético Tembetary vs Fernando De La Mora Prediction— Paraguay - Division Intermedia

Matchday 20 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 13:00

Atlético Tembetary

PPG 1.33 · HOME

LAST 5

DLLWW

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Fernando De La Mora

PPG 1.44 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLWLD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.7% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.9%0-17.1%0-24.2%0-31.7%0-4+0.7%1 1-09.7%1-111.6%1-26.9%1-32.8%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.9%2-19.4%2-25.6%2-32.2%2-4+0.9%3 3-04.3%3-15.1%3-23.1%3-31.2%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-13.0%4+-21.8%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.9% 40.0% 2.50 +14.8%

Draw 24.7% 33.3% 3.00 -15.5%

Away win 29.4% 38.2% 2.62 -13.8%

Over 2.5 53.9% 51.3% 1.95 +5.1%

Over 3.5 31.6% 31.8% 3.14 -0.8%

BTTS 54.7% 57.8% 1.73 -5.4%

Home O1.5 47.4% 43.1% 2.32 +10.0%

Away O1.5 36.7% 41.2% 2.43 -10.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 54%

ROI -43.1%

Bet Hit 31%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 35%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob54.7%

H 46% / xG 1.6-1.2 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.6%

#2 2–1✓ 9.4%

#3 1–0 9.7%

#4 2–0 7.9%

#5 1–2 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Atlético Tembetary1.6

Fernando De La Mora1.2

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ATLÉTICO TEMBETARY · PPG 1.33

FERNANDO DE LA MORA · PPG 1.44

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.43 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Atlético Tembetary (H) 45.9%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +14.8%

Draw 24.7%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -15.5%

Fernando De La Mora (A) 29.4%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -13.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Atlético Tembetary face Fernando De La Mora in Paraguay - Division Intermedia on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Atlético Tembetary a 46% chance, the draw 25% and Fernando De La Mora 29%, so Atlético Tembetary are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Atlético Tembetary and 1.2 for Fernando De La Mora (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Atlético Tembetary are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 1.44 for Fernando De La Mora. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +10.0%. This match finished 2-1.

Atlético Tembetary vs Fernando De La Mora Prediction— Paraguay - Division Intermedia

Match Preview & Prediction

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