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Merani Martvili vs Bolnisi Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga 2

Regular Season - 8 ·Wednesday, April 22, 2026, 12:00

Merani Martvili

PPG 1.75 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Bolnisi

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 64.2% vs bookmaker-implied 48.8% — a clear edge.

+31.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.2%0-14.2%0-22.1%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-09.1%1-19.1%1-24.5%1-31.5%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.9%2-19.9%2-24.9%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-07.2%3-17.2%3-23.6%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-06.5%4+-16.4%4+-23.2%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 64.2% 48.8% 2.05 +31.6%

Draw 19.6% 30.3% 3.30 -35.3%

Away win 16.2% 32.3% 3.10 -49.8%

Over 2.5 61.3% — — —

Over 3.5 39.0% — — —

BTTS 55.9% 58.8% 1.70 -5.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 37 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 43%

Score Hit 57%

ROI 1.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob55.9%

H 64% / xG 2.2-1.0 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 9.9%

#2 2–1✓ 9.9%

#3 1–0 9.1%

#4 1–1 9.1%

#5 3–0 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Merani Martvili2.2

Bolnisi1.0

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.3% · O3.5 PROB 39.0%

Form & verdict PPG

MERANI MARTVILI · PPG 1.75

BOLNISI · PPG 0.67

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

95%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.75) vs P(Home)=64.2%

Win probability 1X2

Merani Martvili (H) 64.2%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV +31.6%

Draw 19.6%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -35.3%

Bolnisi (A) 16.2%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -49.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Merani Martvili face Bolnisi in Georgia - Erovnuli Liga 2 on Wednesday, April 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Merani Martvili a 64% chance, the draw 20% and Bolnisi 16%, so Merani Martvili are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Merani Martvili and 1.0 for Bolnisi (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Merani Martvili are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 0.67 for Bolnisi. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +31.6%. This match finished 2-1.

Merani Martvili vs Bolnisi Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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