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TEC vs Sparta Nijkerk Prediction— Netherlands - Derde Divisie

Matchday 2 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 13:00

TEC

PPG 1.10 · HOME

LAST 5

LWL ··

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Sparta Nijkerk

PPG 1.56 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLD ··

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap -0.35 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.5%0-16.5%0-26.0%0-33.7%0-4+2.6%1 1-05.3%1-19.8%1-29.0%1-35.5%1-4+3.9%2 2-04.0%2-17.3%2-26.7%2-34.1%2-4+2.9%3 3-02.0%3-13.7%3-23.4%3-32.1%3-4+1.5%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.9%4+-21.8%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 32.0% — — —

Draw 24.6% — — —

Away win 43.4% — — —

Over 2.5 59.7% — — —

Over 3.5 36.6% — — —

BTTS 60.3% — — —

Home O1.5 40.0% — — —

Away O1.5 55.2% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 11 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 27%

O2.5 82%

BTTS 73%

Score Hit 27%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.8%

#2 1–2 9.0%

#3 2–1 7.3%

#4 2–2 6.7%

#5 0–2 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

TEC1.5

Sparta Nijkerk1.8

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.6%

Form & verdict PPG

TEC · PPG 1.10

SPARTA NIJKERK · PPG 1.56

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.35 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

TEC (H) 32.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Sparta Nijkerk (A) 43.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

TEC face Sparta Nijkerk in Netherlands - Derde Divisie on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives TEC a 32% chance, the draw 25% and Sparta Nijkerk 43%, so Sparta Nijkerk are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for TEC and 1.8 for Sparta Nijkerk (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, TEC are averaging 1.10 points per game versus 1.56 for Sparta Nijkerk. This match finished 3-1.

TEC vs Sparta Nijkerk Prediction— Netherlands - Derde Divisie

Match Preview & Prediction

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