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DVS 33 Ermelo vs Harkemase Boys Prediction— Netherlands - Derde Divisie

Matchday 2 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 13:00

DVS 33 Ermelo

PPG 1.90 · HOME

LAST 5

LLD ··

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Harkemase Boys

PPG 1.48 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWW ··

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap +0.38 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.1%0-17.4%0-24.5%0-31.8%0-4+0.7%1 1-09.7%1-111.7%1-27.1%1-32.9%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.7%2-19.3%2-25.6%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-04.1%3-14.9%3-23.0%3-31.2%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-12.8%4+-21.7%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.4% — — —

Draw 26.6% — — —

Away win 29.0% — — —

Over 2.5 50.4% — — —

Over 3.5 30.9% — — —

BTTS 53.0% — — —

Home O1.5 47.4% — — —

Away O1.5 37.3% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 11 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 27%

O2.5 82%

BTTS 73%

Score Hit 27%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.7%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 1–0 9.7%

#4 2–0 7.7%

#5 1–2 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

DVS 33 Ermelo1.6

Harkemase Boys1.2

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 30.9%

Form & verdict PPG

DVS 33 ERMELO · PPG 1.90

HARKEMASE BOYS · PPG 1.48

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.38 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

DVS 33 Ermelo (H) 44.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 26.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Harkemase Boys (A) 29.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

DVS 33 Ermelo face Harkemase Boys in Netherlands - Derde Divisie on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives DVS 33 Ermelo a 44% chance, the draw 27% and Harkemase Boys 29%, so DVS 33 Ermelo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for DVS 33 Ermelo and 1.2 for Harkemase Boys (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, DVS 33 Ermelo are averaging 1.90 points per game versus 1.48 for Harkemase Boys. This match finished 0-1.

DVS 33 Ermelo vs Harkemase Boys Prediction— Netherlands - Derde Divisie

Match Preview & Prediction

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