Today / Netherlands - Tweede Divisie / Katwijk vs Hoek

Katwijk vs Hoek Prediction— Netherlands - Tweede Divisie

Matchday 2 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 13:00

Katwijk

PPG 1.71 · HOME

LAST 5

LDW ··

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Hoek

PPG 1.60 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDL ··

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.7% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.0%0-17.5%0-25.6%0-32.8%0-4+1.4%1 1-07.5%1-111.2%1-28.4%1-34.2%1-4+2.2%2 2-05.6%2-18.4%2-26.3%2-33.1%2-4+1.6%3 3-02.8%3-14.2%3-23.1%3-31.6%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-12.2%4+-21.6%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.0% 41.7% 2.40 -13.6%

Draw 27.2% 30.3% 3.30 -6.1%

Away win 36.8% 41.7% 2.40 -11.7%

Over 2.5 53.9% 66.7% 1.50 -19.1%

Over 3.5 31.6% 46.5% 2.15 -32.1%

BTTS 54.7% 71.4% 1.40 -23.4%

Home O1.5 40.0% 54.1% 1.85 -26.0%

Away O1.5 41.2% 53.8% 1.86 -23.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 43 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 37%

ROI 35.8%

Bet Hit 83%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob54.7%

A 37% / xG 1.5-1.5 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 11.2%

#2 1–2 8.4%

#3 2–1 8.4%

#4 0–0 5.0%

#5 2–2 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Katwijk1.5

Hoek1.5

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

KATWIJK · PPG 1.71

HOEK · PPG 1.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.01 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Katwijk (H) 36.0%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV -13.6%

Draw 27.2%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -6.1%

Hoek (A) 36.8%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV -11.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Katwijk face Hoek in Netherlands - Tweede Divisie on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Katwijk a 36% chance, the draw 27% and Hoek 37%, so Hoek are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Katwijk and 1.5 for Hoek (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Katwijk are averaging 1.71 points per game versus 1.60 for Hoek. This match finished 1-1.

Katwijk vs Hoek Prediction— Netherlands - Tweede Divisie

Match Preview & Prediction

More Netherlands - Tweede Divisie Predictions