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Kolkheti Poti vs Samtredia Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga 2

Regular Season - 8 ·Wednesday, April 22, 2026, 12:00

Kolkheti Poti

PPG 1.75 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Samtredia

PPG 0.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 98.3% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1% — a clear edge.

+72.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.1%0-10.1%0-20.0%0-30.0%0-4+0.0%1 1-00.6%1-10.4%1-20.1%1-30.0%1-4+0.0%2 2-01.9%2-11.3%2-20.4%2-30.1%2-4+0.0%3 3-04.0%3-12.7%3-20.9%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-044.3%4+-129.9%4+-210.1%4+-32.3%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 98.3% 57.1% 1.75 +72.0%

Draw 1.2% 28.6% 3.50 -95.8%

Away win 0.4% 26.3% 3.80 -98.5%

Over 2.5 96.9% — — —

Over 3.5 91.5% — — —

BTTS 49.0% 57.1% 1.75 -14.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 37 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 43%

Score Hit 57%

ROI 1.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 56%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)6.3 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob49.0%

H 98% / xG 6.3-0.7 / O2.5 97% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 5–0 7.8%

#2 4–0 6.2%

#3 5–1 5.3%

#4 4–1 4.2%

#5 3–0 4.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kolkheti Poti6.3

Samtredia0.7

COMBINED 6.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 96.9% · O3.5 PROB 91.5%

Form & verdict PPG

KOLKHETI POTI · PPG 1.75

SAMTREDIA · PPG 0.00

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

40%

NEUTRAL

No PPG data

Win probability 1X2

Kolkheti Poti (H) 98.3%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV +72.0%

Draw 1.2%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -95.8%

Samtredia (A) 0.4%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -98.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kolkheti Poti face Samtredia in Georgia - Erovnuli Liga 2 on Wednesday, April 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kolkheti Poti a 98% chance, the draw 1% and Samtredia 0%, so Kolkheti Poti are favoured to win. Expected goals are 6.3 for Kolkheti Poti and 0.7 for Samtredia (6.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 5-0. There is a 97% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kolkheti Poti are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 0.00 for Samtredia. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +72.0%. This match finished 1-3.

Kolkheti Poti vs Samtredia Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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