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Slavia Mozyr vs FC Gomel Prediction— Belarus - Vysshaya Liga

Matchday 19 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 13:00

Slavia Mozyr

PPG 1.00 · HOME

LAST 5

LWWDL

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

FC Gomel

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLWDW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.0% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.6%0-114.1%0-29.3%0-34.1%0-4+1.8%1 1-09.7%1-112.9%1-28.6%1-33.8%1-4+1.7%2 2-04.4%2-15.9%2-23.9%2-31.7%2-4+0.8%3 3-01.4%3-11.8%3-21.2%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.5%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.5% 35.7% 2.80 -12.1%

Draw 27.1% 34.5% 2.90 -12.8%

Away win 44.5% 41.7% 2.40 +6.8%

Over 2.5 50.1% 44.8% 2.23 +11.7%

Over 3.5 28.3% 25.5% 3.92 +6.6%

BTTS 53.0% 54.1% 1.85 -1.9%

Home O1.5 30.6% 33.4% 2.99 -8.5%

Away O1.5 41.2% 38.3% 2.61 +7.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 43%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -48.9%

Bet Hit 27%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 24%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob53.0%

A 44% / xG 0.9-1.3 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 0–1 14.1%

#3 0–0✓ 10.6%

#4 0–2 9.3%

#5 1–0 9.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Slavia Mozyr0.9

FC Gomel1.3

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.1% · O3.5 PROB 28.3%

Form & verdict PPG

SLAVIA MOZYR · PPG 1.00

FC GOMEL · PPG 1.50

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.41, combined xG 2.25 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Slavia Mozyr (H) 28.5%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -12.1%

Draw 27.1%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -12.8%

FC Gomel (A) 44.5%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV +6.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Slavia Mozyr face FC Gomel in Belarus - Vysshaya Liga on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Slavia Mozyr a 28% chance, the draw 27% and FC Gomel 45%, so FC Gomel are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Slavia Mozyr and 1.3 for FC Gomel (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Slavia Mozyr are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.50 for FC Gomel. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +11.7%. This match finished 0-0.

Slavia Mozyr vs FC Gomel Prediction— Belarus - Vysshaya Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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