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Berga vs Staffanstorp United Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Götaland

Södra Götaland · Matchday 18 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 13:00

Berga

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWDL

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Staffanstorp United

PPG 0.89 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDLDL

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 67.6% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6% — a clear edge.

+21.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.9%0-12.2%0-21.3%0-30.5%0-4+0.2%1 1-05.4%1-16.2%1-23.6%1-31.4%1-4+0.5%2 2-07.6%2-18.7%2-25.0%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-07.0%3-18.1%3-24.7%3-31.8%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-09.7%4+-111.1%4+-26.4%4+-32.5%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 67.6% 55.6% 1.80 +21.7%

Draw 16.4% 29.4% 3.40 -26.5%

Away win 16.1% 28.6% 3.50 -26.2%

Over 2.5 67.3% 63.3% 1.58 +6.3%

Over 3.5 46.4% 41.2% 2.43 +12.8%

BTTS 61.3% — — —

Home O1.5 66.2% — — —

Away O1.5 35.6% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 57 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 32%

ROI 3.1%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 76%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)2.8 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob61.3%

H 68% / xG 2.8-1.2 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.7%

#2 3–1 8.1%

#3 2–0 7.6%

#4 1–1✓ 6.2%

#5 3–0 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Berga2.8

Staffanstorp United1.2

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.3% · O3.5 PROB 46.4%

Form & verdict PPG

BERGA · PPG 2.00

STAFFANSTORP UNITED · PPG 0.89

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

98%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.64 for Home, form 2.00 vs 0.89 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Berga (H) 67.6%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV +21.7%

Draw 16.4%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -26.5%

Staffanstorp United (A) 16.1%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -26.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Berga face Staffanstorp United in Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Götaland on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Berga a 68% chance, the draw 16% and Staffanstorp United 16%, so Berga are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.8 for Berga and 1.2 for Staffanstorp United (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Berga are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.89 for Staffanstorp United. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +12.8%. This match finished 1-1.

Berga vs Staffanstorp United Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Götaland

Match Preview & Prediction

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