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Eemdijk vs ADO '20 Prediction— Netherlands - Derde Divisie

Matchday 2 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 12:30

Eemdijk

PPG 1.40 · HOME

LAST 5

LWL ··

4 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

ADO '20

PPG 1.29 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLD ··

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.9%0-16.4%0-25.3%0-32.9%0-4+1.7%1 1-06.2%1-110.2%1-28.4%1-34.6%1-4+2.8%2 2-05.0%2-18.2%2-26.8%2-33.7%2-4+2.2%3 3-02.6%3-14.4%3-23.6%3-32.0%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-12.5%4+-22.1%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.7% — — —

Draw 24.1% — — —

Away win 41.3% — — —

Over 2.5 59.7% — — —

Over 3.5 36.6% — — —

BTTS 54.7% — — —

Home O1.5 47.4% — — —

Away O1.5 48.5% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 11 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 27%

O2.5 82%

BTTS 73%

Score Hit 27%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.2%

#2 1–2 8.4%

#3 2–1 8.2%

#4 2–2 6.8%

#5 0–2 5.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Eemdijk1.6

ADO '201.6

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.6%

Form & verdict PPG

EEMDIJK · PPG 1.40

ADO '20 · PPG 1.29

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.05 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Eemdijk (H) 34.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

ADO '20 (A) 41.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Eemdijk face ADO '20 in Netherlands - Derde Divisie on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Eemdijk a 35% chance, the draw 24% and ADO '20 41%, so ADO '20 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Eemdijk and 1.6 for ADO '20 (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Eemdijk are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 1.29 for ADO '20. This match finished 4-1.

Eemdijk vs ADO '20 Prediction— Netherlands - Derde Divisie

Match Preview & Prediction

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