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RKAV Volendam vs Spakenburg Prediction— Netherlands - Tweede Divisie

Matchday 2 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 12:30

RKAV Volendam

PPG 1.40 · HOME

LAST 5

LWD ··

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Spakenburg

PPG 1.36 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLW ··

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 59.7% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.7%0-16.6%0-26.0%0-33.7%0-4+2.5%1 1-05.5%1-19.9%1-29.0%1-35.4%1-4+3.7%2 2-04.1%2-17.4%2-26.7%2-34.1%2-4+2.8%3 3-02.0%3-13.7%3-23.3%3-32.0%3-4+1.4%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.9%4+-21.7%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.1% 25.0% 4.00 +24.4%

Draw 24.5% 25.0% 4.00 -1.2%

Away win 44.4% 63.7% 1.57 -30.3%

Over 2.5 59.7% 75.2% 1.33 -20.6%

Over 3.5 36.6% 56.8% 1.76 -35.6%

BTTS 54.7% 73.5% 1.36 -25.6%

Home O1.5 40.0% 45.0% 2.22 -11.2%

Away O1.5 49.9% 71.4% 1.40 -30.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 43 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 37%

ROI 35.8%

Bet Hit 83%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob54.7%

A 44% / xG 1.5-1.8 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.9%

#2 1–2 9.0%

#3 2–1✓ 7.4%

#4 2–2 6.7%

#5 0–2 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

RKAV Volendam1.5

Spakenburg1.8

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.6%

Form & verdict PPG

RKAV VOLENDAM · PPG 1.40

SPAKENBURG · PPG 1.36

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.32 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

RKAV Volendam (H) 31.1%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +24.4%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -1.2%

Spakenburg (A) 44.4%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV -30.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

RKAV Volendam face Spakenburg in Netherlands - Tweede Divisie on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives RKAV Volendam a 31% chance, the draw 25% and Spakenburg 44%, so Spakenburg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for RKAV Volendam and 1.8 for Spakenburg (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, RKAV Volendam are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 1.36 for Spakenburg. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +13.8%. This match finished 2-1.

RKAV Volendam vs Spakenburg Prediction— Netherlands - Tweede Divisie

Match Preview & Prediction

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