Today / Uzbekistan - Pro League A / FarDu vs Shortan

FarDu vs Shortan Prediction— Uzbekistan - Pro League A

Matchday 16 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 11:30

FarDu

PPG 2.43 · HOME

LAST 5

WWDWW

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Shortan

PPG 2.29 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWLL

// Model verdict

BTTS 60% chance

xG gap +0.19 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.6%0-17.6%0-25.1%0-32.3%0-4+1.0%1 1-08.6%1-111.6%1-27.8%1-33.5%1-4+1.6%2 2-06.6%2-18.9%2-26.0%2-32.7%2-4+1.2%3 3-03.4%3-14.5%3-23.1%3-31.4%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-12.5%4+-21.6%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.9% — — —

Draw 24.7% — — —

Away win 29.4% — — —

Over 2.5 59.7% — — —

Over 3.5 36.6% — — —

BTTS 60.3% — — —

Home O1.5 41.8% — — —

Away O1.5 41.2% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -100.0%

Bet Hit 0%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.6%

#2 2–1 8.9%

#3 1–0 8.6%

#4 2–0 6.6%

#5 1–2 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FarDu1.5

Shortan1.3

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.6%

Form & verdict PPG

FARDU · PPG 2.43

SHORTAN · PPG 2.29

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.19 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

FarDu (H) 45.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Shortan (A) 29.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

FarDu face Shortan in Uzbekistan - Pro League A on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FarDu a 46% chance, the draw 25% and Shortan 29%, so FarDu are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for FarDu and 1.3 for Shortan (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FarDu are averaging 2.43 points per game versus 2.29 for Shortan. This match finished 3-1.

FarDu vs Shortan Prediction— Uzbekistan - Pro League A

Match Preview & Prediction

More Uzbekistan - Pro League A Predictions