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Belshina vs Arsenal Prediction— Belarus - Vysshaya Liga

Matchday 19 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 11:00

Belshina

PPG 1.38 · HOME

LAST 5

DLDWL

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Arsenal

PPG 1.44 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLLL 

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.8% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.4%0-18.9%0-26.3%0-32.9%0-4+1.4%1 1-08.6%1-112.1%1-28.5%1-34.0%1-4+1.9%2 2-05.8%2-18.2%2-25.7%2-32.7%2-4+1.3%3 3-02.6%3-13.7%3-22.6%3-31.2%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.7%4+-21.2%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.3% 38.2% 2.62 +3.0%

Draw 24.8% 34.7% 2.88 -17.2%

Away win 35.9% 38.5% 2.60 -6.7%

Over 2.5 53.9% 46.3% 2.16 +16.4%

Over 3.5 31.6% 27.6% 3.62 +14.4%

BTTS 55.8% 54.6% 1.83 +2.1%

Home O1.5 37.8% 37.3% 2.68 +1.3%

Away O1.5 41.2% 36.9% 2.71 +11.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 43%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -48.9%

Bet Hit 27%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob55.8%

H 39% / xG 1.4-1.4 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 2–1 8.2%

#3 1–2 8.5%

#4 1–0 8.6%

#5 0–1 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Belshina1.4

Arsenal1.4

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

BELSHINA · PPG 1.38

ARSENAL · PPG 1.44

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.05 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Belshina (H) 39.3%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV +3.0%

Draw 24.8%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -17.2%

Arsenal (A) 35.9%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV -6.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Belshina face Arsenal in Belarus - Vysshaya Liga on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Belshina a 39% chance, the draw 25% and Arsenal 36%, so Belshina are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Belshina and 1.4 for Arsenal (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Belshina are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 1.44 for Arsenal. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +16.4%. This match finished 2-0.

Belshina vs Arsenal Prediction— Belarus - Vysshaya Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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