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Suwon City FC vs Gimhae City Prediction— South Korea - K League 2

Matchday 23 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 10:30

Suwon City FC

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

WWDWW

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Gimhae City

PPG 0.91 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLDLL

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 65.1% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.3%0-12.7%0-21.1%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-08.5%1-17.1%1-22.9%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.0%2-19.1%2-23.8%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-09.5%3-17.9%3-23.3%3-30.9%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-011.3%4+-19.4%4+-23.9%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 65.0% 67.6% 1.48 -3.8%

Draw 19.5% 23.8% 4.20 -10.9%

Away win 15.5% 17.2% 5.80 -6.1%

Over 2.5 63.1% 62.5% 1.60 +1.0%

Over 3.5 39.4% 40.0% 2.50 -1.5%

BTTS 54.5% 59.9% 1.67 -9.0%

Home O1.5 65.1% 66.7% 1.50 -2.4%

Away O1.5 22.5% 28.2% 3.55 -12.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 67 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 57%

ROI -25.4%

Bet Hit 42%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 56%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob54.5%

H 65% / xG 2.6-0.8 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0✓ 11.0%

#2 1–1 7.1%

#3 3–0 9.5%

#4 2–1 9.1%

#5 3–1 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Suwon City FC2.6

Gimhae City0.8

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.1% · O3.5 PROB 39.4%

Form & verdict PPG

SUWON CITY FC · PPG 2.00

GIMHAE CITY · PPG 0.91

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.75 for Home, form 2.00 vs 0.91 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Suwon City FC (H) 65.0%

ODDS 1.48 · IMPLIED 67.6% EV -3.8%

Draw 19.5%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -10.9%

Gimhae City (A) 15.5%

ODDS 5.80 · IMPLIED 17.2% EV -6.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Suwon City FC face Gimhae City in South Korea - K League 2 on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Suwon City FC a 65% chance, the draw 20% and Gimhae City 16%, so Suwon City FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Suwon City FC and 0.8 for Gimhae City (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Suwon City FC are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.91 for Gimhae City. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +3.7%. This match finished 2-0.

Suwon City FC vs Gimhae City Prediction— South Korea - K League 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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