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Daegu FC vs Busan I Park Prediction— South Korea - K League 2

Matchday 23 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 10:30

Daegu FC

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

LWWDW

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Busan I Park

PPG 1.60 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLDDL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.6% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.6%0-14.1%0-23.3%0-31.8%0-4+1.0%1 1-05.3%1-18.5%1-26.8%1-33.6%1-4+2.1%2 2-05.5%2-18.7%2-27.0%2-33.7%2-4+2.1%3 3-03.8%3-16.0%3-24.8%3-32.5%3-4+1.5%4+ 4+-03.1%4+-15.0%4+-24.0%4+-32.1%4+-4+1.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.8% 50.0% 2.00 -4.4%

Draw 22.7% 27.4% 3.65 -10.3%

Away win 29.6% 31.3% 3.20 -3.2%

Over 2.5 64.6% 64.5% 1.55 +0.1%

Over 3.5 43.5% 41.7% 2.40 +4.4%

BTTS 63.2% 67.6% 1.48 -6.5%

Home O1.5 59.3% 57.1% 1.75 +3.8%

Away O1.5 48.5% 43.5% 2.30 +11.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 67 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 57%

ROI -25.4%

Bet Hit 42%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 57%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob63.2%

H 48% / xG 2.1-1.6 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 8.5%

#2 2–1 8.7%

#3 1–2 6.8%

#4 2–2 7.0%

#5 3–1 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Daegu FC2.1

Busan I Park1.6

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.6% · O3.5 PROB 43.5%

Form & verdict PPG

DAEGU FC · PPG 2.00

BUSAN I PARK · PPG 1.60

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.46 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Daegu FC (H) 47.8%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -4.4%

Draw 22.7%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -10.3%

Busan I Park (A) 29.6%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -3.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Daegu FC face Busan I Park in South Korea - K League 2 on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Daegu FC a 48% chance, the draw 23% and Busan I Park 30%, so Daegu FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Daegu FC and 1.6 for Busan I Park (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Daegu FC are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.60 for Busan I Park. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +11.6%. This match finished 1-1.

Daegu FC vs Busan I Park Prediction— South Korea - K League 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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