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Libertad vs Guayaquil City Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Regular Season - 10 ·Tuesday, April 21, 2026, 22:00

Libertad

PPG 2.00 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Guayaquil City

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 61.6% vs bookmaker-implied 48.1% — a clear edge.

+28.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.5%0-16.7%0-22.0%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-018.2%1-110.6%1-23.1%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.3%2-18.4%2-22.4%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-07.5%3-14.4%3-21.3%3-30.3%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-04.2%4+-12.5%4+-20.7%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 61.6% 48.1% 2.08 +28.1%

Draw 24.9% 30.3% 3.30 -17.8%

Away win 13.6% 29.0% 3.45 -53.1%

Over 2.5 36.7% 47.6% 2.10 -22.9%

Over 3.5 17.3% 26.3% 3.80 -34.3%

BTTS 35.1% 54.6% 1.83 -35.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 63 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 57%

ROI -1.1%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 63%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob35.1%

H 62% / xG 1.6-0.6 / U2.5 37% / NoBTTS 35%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 18.2%

#2 2–0 14.3%

#3 0–0 11.5%

#4 1–1 10.6%

#5 2–1 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Libertad1.6

Guayaquil City0.6

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 36.7% · O3.5 PROB 17.3%

Form & verdict PPG

LIBERTAD · PPG 2.00

GUAYAQUIL CITY · PPG 1.20

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.00) > Away AVERAGE (1.20)

Win probability 1X2

Libertad (H) 61.6%

ODDS 2.08 · IMPLIED 48.1% EV +28.1%

Draw 24.9%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -17.8%

Guayaquil City (A) 13.6%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -53.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Libertad face Guayaquil City in Ecuador - Liga Pro on Tuesday, April 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Libertad a 62% chance, the draw 25% and Guayaquil City 14%, so Libertad are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Libertad and 0.6 for Guayaquil City (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 37% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 35% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Libertad are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.20 for Guayaquil City. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +28.1%. This match finished 0-1.

Libertad vs Guayaquil City Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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