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Tochigi SC vs Kitakyushu Prediction— Japan - J3 League

Matchday 3 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 10:00

Tochigi SC

PPG 1.85 · HOME

LAST 5

WDDL ·

2 – 2

FULL TIME

Kitakyushu

PPG 1.48 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDD ··

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.5%0-110.4%0-24.3%0-31.2%0-4+0.3%1 1-015.5%1-113.0%1-25.4%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-09.7%2-18.1%2-23.4%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-04.0%3-13.4%3-21.4%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-11.4%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.3% 52.4% 1.91 -15.4%

Draw 32.2% 33.3% 3.00 -3.4%

Away win 23.6% 27.8% 3.60 -9.0%

Over 2.5 38.7% 48.8% 2.05 -20.7%

Over 3.5 20.6% 26.7% 3.74 -13.8%

BTTS 47.6% 54.1% 1.85 -11.9%

Home O1.5 35.6% 46.5% 2.15 -23.5%

Away O1.5 22.6% 28.6% 3.50 -12.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 12 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 33%

ROI 55.0%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 36%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob47.6%

H 44% / xG 1.2-0.8 / U2.5 39% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.0%

#2 0–0 12.5%

#3 1–0 15.5%

#4 2–0 9.7%

#5 0–1 10.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tochigi SC1.2

Kitakyushu0.8

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 38.7% · O3.5 PROB 20.6%

Form & verdict PPG

TOCHIGI SC · PPG 1.85

KITAKYUSHU · PPG 1.48

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.41, combined xG 2.08 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Tochigi SC (H) 44.3%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV -15.4%

Draw 32.2%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -3.4%

Kitakyushu (A) 23.6%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -9.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tochigi SC face Kitakyushu in Japan - J3 League on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tochigi SC a 44% chance, the draw 32% and Kitakyushu 24%, so Tochigi SC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Tochigi SC and 0.8 for Kitakyushu (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 39% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tochigi SC are averaging 1.85 points per game versus 1.48 for Kitakyushu. This match finished 2-2.

Tochigi SC vs Kitakyushu Prediction— Japan - J3 League

Match Preview & Prediction

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